NFL 2020 Season — Week 7
An amazing week for our model as we called 100% of games in Week 7 compared to the 71% called by 538. The games we got that they didn’t were the Lions pipping the Falcons (we gave them a 53.1% chance of victory); Steelers over the Titans (71.9%) and the 49ers beating the Patriots (53.1%).
Heading into this weekend and we aren’t confident that the 100% record will continue, with only 6 games with over a 70% chance compared to the 9 last week.
Again there are a couple of variations to the 538 model. They go for the Broncos over the Chargers, but the Chargers are one of our locks of Week 8, with a 78.1% chance of victory. The Chargers currently sit 13th in our Watch Xi Rankings vs 27th for the Broncos. Justin Herbert is settling into his role in LA and will hope that Keenan Allen can continue to prove his fitness as they look to pick up a 3rd win of the season and first on the road since Week 1. Herbert is averaging the 3rd most yards per completion this season with 12.43 only Stafford (12.44), Watson (12.6) and Cousins (13.1) have longer. We have him as the 8th strongest QB going into Week 8, but his protection needs to improve as he’s already racked up 10 sacks.
We also have the Steelers at 68.8% to beat the Ravens who travel to Heinz field this Sunday. 538 didn’t like the Steelers last week v the Titans and they bet against them this week. The Steelers remain unbeaten going into this rivalry matchup and are currently 2nd in our Watch Xi Rankings (Ravens currently sit 8th). On paper they are 2 closely matched teams, however the Steelers edge it on offensive yards gained by 4.0% and on defense they have conceded (15.7%) less yards than the Ravens (1,718 vs 2,039). The defensive stats continue to be in Pittsburgh’s favour with 8 interceptions and 26 sacks; the joint highest combo in the league with the Bucs. We rank none of their receivers in the Top 20, while James Conner of the Steelers only just scraped in to the Top 20 RB’s at 18, so it comes down to the QBs. It can’t be said that Big Ben is having a renaissance year just yet however he’s well protected and is using the ball efficiently whilst he gets used to his young receiving core. Lamar Jackson is over-reliant on his rushing which is going to be difficult to execute against the Steelers who have allowed the least rushing yards and joint least rushing TDs so far this season.
Our models other difference is the 49ers to beat the Seahawks. Now personally this doesn’t sit right with me, sure the Seahawks are coming off a confidence crushing loss to the Cardinals but the 49ers have already lost 3 games this season. As with the Steelers, it all comes down to defence where the 49ers, although suffering injuries have allowed the least number of TDs so far and the 3rd least passing yards. They’ll need to have their best performance of the season so far to hold off Russell Wilson and 2 Top 5 (in our Rankings) receivers in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. The loss of RB of the week Jeff Wilson adds to the injury roster for the 49ers which could be decisive.
Come back on Tuesday afternoon to see how we got on in Week 8, and who are Top Performing players of the week were.
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Week 8 Picks
